Methodology
A transparent overview of what the prediction model uses, excludes, and verifies.
Current model
- Model version
- elo_draw_v0
- Model family
- Elo
A transparent Elo draw model estimates win/draw/loss probabilities from team strength and calibrated draw behavior.
Inputs
- Normalized international match results used to maintain team Elo strength.
- Source-backed 2026 World Cup fixtures and team identities.
- Draw calibration parameters validated outside the web request path.
Exclusions
- Betting odds, private injury notes, and unsourced rumors are excluded from model inputs.
- The methodology page does not read secrets, environment variables, or provider configuration.
- No pre-tournament hit rate or accuracy claim is shown before completed fixtures can be scored.
- News summaries and source links are display context only; they do not enter the official Predictor and do not change probability output.